LanDroid wrote:Good information in this interview with epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brilliant. Scary, but ultimately also somewhat optimistic.
And he wears Hokas, the world's cushiest shoes.

The whole epidemiological community has been warning everybody for the past 10 or 15 years that it wasn't a question of whether we were going to have a pandemic like this. It was simply when. It's really hard to get people to listen.

3/19/20
https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus ... miologist/

Here's the organization Dr. Brilliant works with.
https://endingpandemics.org/

Dr. Brilliant???!!

Come on now

ant wrote:Great analysis I thought I'd share with the BT peeps.
Updated regularly
Evidence Over Hysteria
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Ant,
That link doesn't work, see message from Medium below. Maybe keep checking it or find a different link?
"410 Post Suspended - This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules."

LanDroid wrote:

ant wrote:Great analysis I thought I'd share with the BT peeps.
Updated regularly
Evidence Over Hysteria
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Ant,
That link doesn't work, see message from Medium below. Maybe keep checking it or find a different link?
"410 Post Suspended - This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules."

Yep - I discovered that about an hour ago and have been following a heated rebuttal to it by an epidemiologist.
He had a strong response to it but also went off on the deep end with "I'm an expert and youre not"
It's not so much about Aaron's (the author of the EVIDENCE OVER HYSTERIA) lack of expertise in epidemiology (he's clearly not). It's his analysis of the moving data from the CDC, WHO, John Hopkins, and other credible sources..


It's supposed to be reposted.. When it is I'll post it.

Sorry, man. Didn't know it would turn into a crap storm

LanDroid wrote:

ant wrote:Great analysis I thought I'd share with the BT peeps.
Updated regularly
Evidence Over Hysteria
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Ant,
That link doesn't work, see message from Medium below. Maybe keep checking it or find a different link?
"410 Post Suspended - This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules."

As promised : https://zerohedge.whotrades.com/blog/43910127594

Tell me what you think.

It created a humongous s** storm on social media, particularly with epidemiologist and other related "experts"

Yes - there are some comments on it that seem very reckless and questionable.
But I'm looking at if strictly for what the "moving data" is telling us so far.

ant wrote:As promised : https://zerohedge.whotrades.com/blog/43910127594

Tell me what you think.

I scanned through the articles a couple of times. The general gist of it is that we may be overreacting to the Covid19 scare and the epidemic may peter out relatively quickly. I hope that's true. There's a lot of uncertainty related to Covid19, which makes people generally anxious.

My other comment is that the guy who wrote this piece—Aaron Ginn—is "technologist" and political writer/activist. I don't see him as particularly credible source on the subject of Covid19. Just because his article made a big splash in social media circles doesn't really mean anything.

That said, I thought Ginn makes several valid points. We are perhaps too focused on total number of cases, but the vast majority of the cases are inconsequential. Much of the spread of the disease is not due to geometric increase, but only due to increased testing. Covid19 may not be nearly as contaigous as we fear. The coming warm weather may slow it down, etc.

In the end, it's better for health officials to overreact than to underreact. We are taking fairly drastic social distancing measures and ultimately this may save lives. (Look for Maryland and some other states to start Shelter-in-Place protocol as early as tomorrow). If Covid19 fades out like the Ebola virus did, that would only be good. We can go back to normal earlier, rather than later. Cross your fingers that this is how it will play out.

I agree with DWill. One example of spin-doctoring by Aaron Ginn (who has worked in Republican party politics) is referring to the total number of cases shown on the Johns Hopkins dashboard as "vanity data" which is devoid of context. However that web page also lists the number of recoveries and deaths, so it is easy to calculate the number of active cases. Also by clicking a button it shows a map of only the active cases. Context is provided.

Zero Hedge doesn't list when the article was originally written or posted on Medium. That is important because it lists total US infections as 19,658, but the current number is 32,717, a 66% increase in an unknown period of time.

I recommend ditching the article by Aaron Ginn and using the following one which Ginn references. It is much shorter, also controversial, and is written by John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center. I believe it makes essentially the same point about needing more data, but in a more trustworthy way.

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco. At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.

John P.A. Ioannidis
3/17/20
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

I also recommend ditching Zero Hedge and perusing statnews.com instead. For example, this appears to be excellent advice for our courageous health care workers.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/i-f ... -covid-19/

FYI: Ohio starts Shelter in place at midnight tomorrow lasting through midnight 4/6/20. You might want to read it, may be coming to your state soon.
https://www.scribd.com/document/4527817 ... from_embed

I'm not using zero hedge as a reference point.

I read his article based on all the data he's attempted to summarize to date.

He admittedly said his "let's not get hysterical" summation of the available data is in flux, there is some reason for optimism, but it's still very early in the game and we have to wait for more data over the next several days.

I agreed with his recommendation and support that we continue to practice much better hygiene while all this is happening, but I disagreed with his somewhat radical "let's open back up everything that we closed" suggestion.

Here is a highly distressing story, explaining how a young person carelessly caught covid and then gradually descended into the maelstrom. Stay home.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... ction.html

Psychology Today published this morning an article tiled "Minus the Hysteria"
I read it before it was blocked with an Access Denied message.

LanDroid wrote:I agree with DWill.

Hey LanDroid--I think it's geo you're agreeing with.