S.C. and Nevada results

[irishrosem]

Well it's a gloomy Sunday for me. Not the weather. In fact, it looks gorgeous out and I'm about to shoot out the door right now.

But, as far as my wishes go, the primaries last night weren't a pretty sight. I'm not surprised McCain beat Huckabee in South Carolina, but I was so hoping otherwise. And Huckabee's people seemed sure he could pick-up the conservative state. Granted, he did have a strong showing, but I think his campaign is probably nearing life support. And fast running out of money. If he keeps on, he might cause some damage in the southern states come February 5. What I don't know is who Huckabee would draw his support from. I can't imagine evangelicals voting for Romney instead, but I can't see them voting for McCain either.

It'll be somewhat gloomy for me if McCain and Clinton win their respective primaries. Just that scenario took a step in the right direction yesterday.

[George Ricker]

Rose, like you, I was not surprised that McCain edged Huckabee in South Carolina. The Republican Party has a real dilemma this year. It has the choice of nominating someone who will be agreeable to the Religious Right, and thereby alienating moderate Republicans and independents, or nominating someone who will be acceptable to moderates and independents and losing the support of the Religious Right. I think it's a lose-lose situation.

Giuliani, predictably, has lost his front-runner status. Even Florida, once considered a lock for him, is now in play as McCain moves up in the polls. Giuliani might be acceptable to conservative Republicans but less so to conservative Christians. Neither McCain nor Romny, who both have some appeal for establishment Republicans, moderates and indepents, is acceptable to the hard-line conservatives. Huckabee does well with religious conservatives, but not so much with the rest of the party, which seems to view him as a religious kook with some dangerous ideas (Ban tobacco? Amend the Consitution to conform to the Bible?).

Personally, I'm happy to see the GOP in this fix because I think it is a clear case of chickens coming home to roost. For most of the last 30 years, they have pandered to the religious right in order to pick up enough support to make them a majority party. Now they are saddled with it and, in my opinion, can't win without it.

So 2008 should be a shoo-in for the Democrats. But then there is the Hillary factor. Clinton is seen by many, and I include myself in that number, as too much the creature of the political establishment at a time when this nation needs to get back to the idea of government as the servant of the people and not the protector of the corporate oligarchy. Hillary has little appeal to progressive Democrats and independents and is losing support among black voters because they, quite understandably, are turning to Obama.

Clinton also suffers because she is seen as such a polarizing figure by many. Now, I'm not sure the case for that isn't overblown, but it is a popular perception. She is hurt by her own record in the Senate and by what is perceived as a willingness to sacrifice any principle on the altar of electability.

However, even with her considerable liabiilties, I have to say Hillary, and anyone else among the Democratic contenders, seems preferable to me than anyone on the Republican slate. Frankly, I would have a difficult time voting for any Republican in any race because of what the party has come to represent in terms of irresponsible domestic and foreign policy and it's utter abandonment of even the pretense of respect for the principle of separation between government and religions.

I understand your gloom, though. While it's likely this election will bring about a change of leadership at the top, I'm not at all sure that either party is capable of solving our long-term problems. Unfortunately, they control the process and show no signs of relinquishing the reins of power.

Until the American people demand a change in the way we do politics in this country, I don't see much hope for the future, regardless of which party is in power.

That said, I will vote for whomever the Democrats nominate. At least, in this election. I think the prospects for positive change are marginally better with the Republican Party out of power than with it in charge.

George