Obama and the Gracchi

[Robert Tulip]

In studying history, I like to compare events across zodiacal ages, the long 2147-8 year periods in which the equinox traverses each sign of the zodiac. This rather quirky method has led me to compare the USA to ancient Rome, Russia to Sparta and China to its own ancient history. Parallels produced by this method include the Second Punic War with World War Two, Chinese Warring States and Han Dynasty periods respectively with China's colonial subjugation by Europe and the Communist period so far, and Russia's similarities with Sparta's military and serf systems.

By this method, our world today can be compared with the world of 140 BC, and the turning point at year one equates to a future world of 2148 AD. What was happening in Rome at 140BC? Interestingly, somewhat like the USA today, it was seeing the disruption of its republican institutions, which had enabled the conquest of Greece, Carthage, Italy and Spain. Demographic and economic change produced strong polarities between the rich landowners of the Senate and the urban poor. Into this context, in 133 BC, (equating to 2015) came the brothers Tiberius and Gaius Gracchus, grandsons of Scipio the victor over Hannibal, and advocates of land reform to divide large estates, the slave-worked latifundia. The Gracchi aimed to re-establish the peasant class who were the backbone of the Roman army. Tiberius was elected tribune of the people, and established an agrarian reform commission against the opposition of the Senate, obtaining wealth from the conquest of Pergamum to buy land for the poor. Tiberius Gracchus was murdered in Rome. As described by H.H. Scullard: "the Pontifex Maximus, P. Scipio Nasica ... resorted to force. Leading out those senators who would follow him, he rushed to the assembly where they clubbed and stoned to death three hundred Gracchans. Tiberius himself was struck down near the door of the Temple of Jupiter Capitolinus, close by the statues of the Kings. All the bodies were thrown into the Tiber by night." (From the Gracchi to Nero p29). Gaius Gracchus survived, and partly implemented the agrarian reform, but grew the seed of popular class opposition to the Roman establishment. In Scullard's words, "the people had learned something of its powers, a new aspect of the tribunate was displayed, and above all the weakness of the Senate was revealed. This challenge to the traditional government of Rome without the creation of any adequate alternative

[President Camacho]

That's interesting. I'm going to pick up that book. I don't know too much at all about Roman history and I'd like to learn more.

Off subject, there sure are many people that discuss Obama and assassination. It sometimes makes me feel like it's inevitable. All this talk is sure going to make the impact of his assassination less traumatic for me and probably the rest of the American people. As if it was meant to be and it is OK. Maybe it'll even get brushed under the carpet faster than Bhutto's assassination was.

If there was a sudden shock brought about by Obama's assassination, emotional mobs might be able to have an impact. I'm sure because the country talks about his eventual assassination so much, the surprise and emotional feelings of injustice won't be there with the same magnitude and intensity. There might even be a purging of held-in anxiety for those waiting, just waiting for it to happen. Like a breath finally exhaled.

"I knew it.... they killed him. I bet the blacks will riot now."

[Robert Tulip]

Pres, I realised after posting this thread that some might interpret it as you have, but that was not my intention. Rather, it is about opening up the fissures between Obama's agenda for change and the powers of the status quo. My hope is that he can transform the institution of the presidency to confront the powers of the world. Of course you are right that this presents massive risks. The story of Tiberius Gracchus is an interesting parable for Obama, as TG confronted the status quo with very limited knowledge of what he was getting into, and got clubbed to death by the pope on the Capitoline for his troubles. The nuance of politics leavened by time can hopefully protect Obama from such a fate. Marx said history repeats first time as tragedy second time as farce, but I hope it could be first time tragedy second time transformation. Robert

[President Camacho]

I think you may give too much weight to the current administration establishing something of an enduring status quo that will be difficult to change. The current state of affairs is already changing and begs for more change. Obama comes during a time when the entire country seems to want to tack in the direction he advocates.

I think this represents a return to the middle. A pendulum swinging back towards the center with momentum to take it passed. The beautiful thing about our political system is that Obama won't have ultimate power. The Democrats now have slight majorities in the house and senate but don't wield enough power to pass something like universal health care.

Will Barack have the same power as TG would have?

I'm convinced that you think Obama is getting in over his head and has "limited knowledge". What I'm convinced of is that the man is an excellent politician and has played the game with finesse and class. His quick climb to the top and continued success speaks for itself. He'll learn the game quickly. Don't you worry about him.

This man is striving for bipartisanship and diplomacy. He wants national unity. Was TG's strategy the same?

I'm surprised GW didn't get assassinated. I'm super super surprised that Cheney wasn't either. These men will tell you flat out that they don't care what you think. They have blinders on and don't want to hear opinions that differ from their own. In my opinion, Bush is the one with limited knowledge and should get clubbed to death. Why is this man still alive? Doesn't anyone in America care enough about their country to kill this man?

[Robert Tulip]

Years ago when Walter Mondale ran against Ronald Wilson Reagan, an American friend told me she didn't know anyone who voted for Reagan, but he won by a mile. I think you are overstating the mood for change, as the conservative powers are able to obtain support from many people who vote against their personal interests, due to emotional factors which the Karl Roves of this world can manipulate with great skill. Obama is far less 'over his head' than was Tiberius Gracchus, given the massive amounts of information now available, but there is a looming confrontation with the power of capital which is emerging in a somewhat subterranean way and has not yet crystallised. TG did not want unity, but rather sought to overthrow the power of the Senate and rule as a demagogue with plebeian support. His methods were based on confrontation. I am not at all arguing anyone should emulate him, given the risks of war and instability inherent in such tactics, but still TG presents a parable for how the Roman Republic, at a similar pre-imperial stage, faced existential challenges to its traditional institutions and values, and found a champion able to articulate the popular mood. Obama will need to present a voice of unity in order to widen his voter base, and maybe that is a good thing. I simply think that the powers that be are leading our world towards very dangerous areas in terms of climate change and energy supply, and it will take a transformative politics to confront these trends and give space to new ideas.

[Daisy]

Off subject, there sure are many people that discuss Obama and assassination. It sometimes makes me feel like it's inevitable. All this talk is sure going to make the impact of his assassination less traumatic for me and probably the rest of the American people. As if it was meant to be and it is OK. Maybe it'll even get brushed under the carpet faster than Bhutto's assassination was.

Really?!?! I've never heard anything like this. Where are people talking about that?

[Ophelia]

Really?!?! I've never heard anything like this. Where are people talking about that?

It's being discussed every day on French television for example...

We also get reassuring video footage that shows us how well prepared they are (whatever federal agency protects candidates and presidents), we are shown Obama's five (I think) discreet but super-efficient bodyguards and it gets repeated they get exactly the same training as those who protect George Bush (so Camacho, let's just hope they're as good as they look).

I'm not sure which came first: apparently there are people in the Black communtity who are fatalistic and think Obama won't be allowed to live.
then there's the anniversary of Bob Kennedy's assassination, and Hilary's unfortunate reference to it...
So naturally the media love it-- it would be interesting to know how many Americans thought about a possible assassination before the media got onto it.
Sadly, I think the whole planet has been used to regular spectacle (of the kind that sells really well) from the States: there is only so much attention you can get by repeating that Bush is a moron, and of course nobody in the media is interested in predicting Bush's death. But a young, good-looking black candidate...?
This is much better than Monica Lewinsky, and even better than OJ!