DB Roy wrote:Harry Marks wrote: That's an astute observation about his kids. But a deal like that can't come from the prosecutors: holding his kids hostage?
I'm not going to argue this because legalities involved are far beyond what I'm sure either one of us really knows about. Suffice it to say, they will make clear to him that they are open to his resignation if he chooses that route.
Your point is well taken, for sure for my shallowness of knowledge. I am just making guesses based on political gut instincts. "I was going to fight these false and political charges but they threatened my kids with jail time if I didn't resign," is sufficient political cover to pardon the kids.
DB Roy wrote:Political poison.
For whom??? The justice dept are not politicians, are not affiliated with any political party and the head of that dept is a Trump appointee. Political poison for whom?
Political poison for anyone thinking that a resignation by Trump is a solution to Trumpism. Handled wrong, that kind of threat to hold his kids hostage could easily deepen the divisions and make administration of justice even more difficult.
DB Roy wrote:It has to be Trump's idea.
I think they know what they are doing. There's no point to arguing with me about it since I am not a legal expert.
Yes I'm sure you're right that they will handle it professionally. I do enjoy trying to scope it out, and your post was the first time I saw anyone point out the obvious leverage provided by the family criminality. So I am just thinking "out loud" so to speak. Still an interesting business to think about.
DB Roy wrote:Back when the Russian thing first came to light, Huffington Post printed an article about how Trump's presidency would end and it ended with a group of democrats and republicans in Congress going to the White House and telling him he had to resign for the good of the country. And pretty sure that is how it will go.
That makes sense. And a group like that probably could broker a deal with prosecutors, including state level prosecutors.
These are the sorts of crimes I expect will furnish the cliff for him to either turn around (i.e. resign) or drive off of.
https://www.newsweek.com/jared-kushner- ... ing-771166
DB Roy wrote:Harry Marks wrote:Yeah but that's exactly the point. It was all politics, and the Republicans actually came off looking pretty dumb.
I agree but this is CLEARLY not all politics. They are some
serious charges here.
Well, technically Bill Clinton was up for perjury, which is obstruction of justice and pretty serious. Politically, lying about sex with Monica qualified more as stupid than as assault on the justice system, but it was not a lightweight crime.
DB Roy wrote: If he drags the country through impeachment proceedings, most of the people will never forgive him for that. If he gets off--all the worse for him. Or if congress votes not to impeach, that won't be acceptable to the people. That's a mockery of the Office. That's not draining the swamp, that's being the king of it.
Well, 50 to 55 percent of America already will never forgive Trump for what he has done to America's institutions. The question is what damage will happen to the Republican party if they don't do something about him, and right now the tea leaves are still saying "not much." Of course the discussion is exactly where it was when Nixon had 40% support and the Republicans in Congress were saying, "there is no smoking gun." And then a few months later there was a smoking gun. It's pretty likely with all the insiders turning on him that similar stuff will come out on Trump.
DB Roy wrote:I said earlier than the dems would not likely take either house in 2018 but I'm not so sure now. I think they will take the senate. They could take the house but that's probably hoping for too much. They will make big gains in the house though.
The conventional wisdom is that taking the house will be easier, due to the number of Red State Democrats being challenged effectively in the Senate. Five Thirty-Eight gives the Dems a 5 in 7 chance of taking the House.
However, checking the poll sites I see that the Dems start the campaign season with a decent chance of winning the Senate also. They need to win 6 of the 7 toss-up races or beat Cruz in Texas in place of one of those 6. But they are behind in Tennessee and Indiana and maybe North Dakota. I haven't seen a poll for Arizona yet, and Missouri seems to be dead even. Even if they get the toss-ups where they are ahead, Nevada and Florida prominently, the chances are they will fall short overall.
As usual these days, turnout is the big deciding factor, and turnout tends to favor Republicans in off-year elections, but it also tends to favor the party out of power when there is considerable dissatisfaction. There is plenty of dissatisfaction with the party in power this year, but not really in Tennessee, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri and Arizona. In fact, the Republicans are trying to get the "hold your nose" supporters to turn out by threatening that the Democrats will do what the Republicans did in the 90s, if they take a Congressional majority.
In my opinion, the Dems could successfully run on holding honest Congressional hearings, which is not going to happen without them holding the majority. Climate, public lands, schools policies, consumer lending protection, health care, deficits, trade policy, even tax policy, are ripe for some good hearings. The Republicans have been charging ahead with foolhardy rewards to their donors, and setting themselves up for disaster.